California State University (CSU) put meat on its bare-bones budget for handling a $250 million cut in its funding should Governor Jerry Brown’s Proposition 30 fail at the ballot box November 6—and it was a rather sickly display.

The 23-campus system would raise tuition 5%, increase per-unit costs for non-resident students 7%, reduce enrollment (perhaps 20,000), axe 5,500 class sections, and reduce faculty and staff levels by 1,500.

California’s 2012-13 budget counts on Prop. 30 revenues to reach a balanced state, which is already jeopardized by a flailing economy. The initiative would boost California’s sales tax a quarter percent and raise income taxes, in varying degrees, on wealthy people. If Prop. 30 fails to pass, expenditures will be sliced in midstream by $6 billion, with almost all the cuts made in education.

Public universities would lose more than $500 million and K-12 schools and community colleges would lose $5.4 billion. The annual amount of money that would flow into state coffers could vary by billions from year to year, because money is raised via a levy on upper-income taxpayers whose incomes fluctuate depending on the health of the economy and their investments.

The University of California regents have already discussed a 20% midyear tuition increase if Prop. 30 loses, bringing in a bunch of pricey out-of-state students (crowding out the lower-paying locals), varying tuition costs between campuses, charging more for certain majors, holding more weekend classes, teaching more online and less in the classroom, leasing parking facilities, hiking parking fees, and replacing teachers who do research with ones who teach.

The 112-school California Community College System, which has already been cut $809 million (12%) since 2008-09, is on the hook for another $338 million beating. The system could lose 180,000 students and possibly a venerated institution. City College of San Francisco is in a race to see if it goes bankrupt before the state pulls its accreditation, and the loss of Prop. 30 funds could push it over the brink.    

The state has accused City College of failing to make cuts in the past commensurate with a declining budget. A report by the Accrediting Commission for Community and Junior Colleges listed 14 deficiencies the school has to fix by June 2013 or face closure. But the school is projecting an immediate $11 million budget deficit if it loses Prop. 30 funds.

–Ken Broder

To Learn More:

Cal State Panel OKs Tuition Hike if Tax Measure Fails (by Terence Chea, Associated Press)

Cal State System to Hike Tuition 5% if Prop. 30 Fails (by Carla Rivera, Los Angeles Times)

CSU Tuition to Rise 5% if Prop. 30 Fails (by Fermin Leal, Orange County Register)

UC Regents Brainstorm Changes If Voters Reject Prop. 30 (by Larry Gordon, Los Angeles Times)

Cal State Applicants to Get Warning Letter about Tax Initiative (by Evan Halper, Los Angeles Times)

City College Near Bankruptcy, Audit Says (by Nanette Asimov, San Francisco Chronicle)

Prop. 30 Overview (Legislative Analyst’s Office)

State’s Biggest Community College Calls Imminent Closure a “Teachable Moment” (by Ken Broder, AllGov)