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Overview:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is responsible for helping analyze economic and budgetary decisions, as well as financial programs administered by the federal government. Additionally, the CBO provides estimates for the Congressional budget process, and issues studies, reports, briefs, presentations, background papers, letters, and other publications on the budgetary process and testifies before Congress on a variety of economic issues. The $700 billion bailout of troubled Wall Street companies in 2008 forced the CBO into new territory as the nation’s deficit climbs to record levels.

History:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) was created on July 12, 1974, during the Nixon administration. The underlying legislation was the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act. The office began operations on February 24, 1975, with Alice Rivlin as its first director.

The authorizing legislation was created as a result of the growing distrust of President Richard Nixon, as well as his cabinet members and their policies. After the law was passed, the federal government no longer had to rely on the President’s personal assessments of the economy and instead gave Congress its own independent budget office that was meant to be non-partisan in nature.

Since then, the CBO has worked closely with various House and Senate committees by preparing special reports that analyze the potential costs of bills being studied. The CBO projects costs over time and advises members of Congress on the President’s annual budget and other requests for funds from executive branch agencies. Officially, the CBO does not take sides with either political party.

In 2010, the CBO issued 33 studies and reports, 12 briefs, 12 Monthly Budget Reviews, 35 letters, 14 presentations, and two background papers, along with additional supplemental data. Representatives from the CBO also testified before Congress on 14 occasions and completed approximately 650 formal federal cost estimates and 475 estimates forecasting the impact of unfunded mandates on state and local governments. Finally, the CBO created about 475 estimates on the impact of unfunded mandates on the private sector.

What it Does:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is responsible for providing analysis and estimates on issues affecting the budget, costs of pending legislation and an economic outlook for the U.S. For every bill that comes before Congress or a committee, the CBO provides cost estimates that project the price tag of the potential new law over its complete term. According to the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 and the Unfunded Mandates Act of 1995 (pdf), the CBO must produce a cost estimate and mandate statement for every bill reported by a Congressional committee.

The CBO’s cost estimates assess a complete range of financial effects for each bill. Each cost estimate must address discretionary spending, direct spending, and any impact on federal revenues, such as laws that could change the federal tax code or affect the work done by the Joint Committee on Taxation.

Cost estimates often include intergovernmental and private-sector mandate statements, which identify any federal mandates and estimate the costs that these mandates would impose on state, local or tribal governments, as well as private sector companies. Occasionally, the CBO is asked to provide informal estimates and statements for proposals or bills at earlier stages in the process (and sometimes later in the process).

The CBO also prepares reports on the budget and economic outlook for the next 10 years. These provide a baseline from which other changes in spending or tax laws are measured. In its various analyses, the CBO works with the CBO Panel of Economic Advisers, and the Panel of Health Advisers, as well as governmental employees from other agencies.

The agency also estimates proposals contained in the President’s budget, which enables Congress to compare the administration’s spending and revenue proposals to the CBO’s baseline projections.

The CBO publishes the Budget and Economic Outlook and An Analysis of the President’s Budget to help Congress make budgetary decisions. Additional documents the CBO publishes include:

Analytical studies, such as economic and budgetary issues
Policy briefs
The Monthly Budget Review summarizing the government’s fiscal activity during the previous month. This includes outlays, receipts, and the deficit or surplus throughout the fiscal year
Background papers and related documents that reveal how the CBO came to its conclusions. Related reports, including the Economic Forecasting Record and The Uncertainty of Budget Projections, disclose CBO’s track record.

The CBO is composed of economists and public policy analysts. The director of the CBO serves for a term of four years and is appointed by the Speaker of the House and the President pro Tempore of the Senate. However, the House or Senate can remove the director by adopting a resolution.

From the Web Site of the CBO

Employment and Labor Markets

Energy and Natural Resources

Panel of Economic Advisors

Panel of Health Advisors

Poverty and Income Security

Where Does the Money Go:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) purchases such items and services as IT hardware and software, including network equipment, computers, commercial software and maintenance agreements; IT consulting services; subscriptions to online collections and print publications; and training.

About 90% of CBO’s budget is allotted to compensation of personnel.

Doing Business with CBO

Controversies:

CBO’S Recent Analysis of Healthcare Reform Causes Controversy

Within a year’s time, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) demonstrated how its analyses of healthcare reform could upset both Democrats and Republicans. In March 2012, the CBO released a new estimate on the new law intended to provide health insurance for the tens of millions lacking coverage. The assessment’s worst-case scenario warned that up to 20 million Americans could lose their employer-based health insurance because of the number of corporations threatening to drop coverage for their workers due to the new law. Under a different scenario, congressional analysts said the law could increase the number of people with employer-based coverage by three million in 2019.

Republicans, who opposed the new law, were happy to use the CBO’s worst-case scenario to blast President Barack Obama. The president had promised that Americans who liked their current coverage would be able to keep it. Only a year earlier, it was Republicans who received some sobering news from the CBO, when it said the healthcare reform law could prove to be a money-saver and that the GOP bill to repeal the law would raise the federal deficit by $230 billion.

CBO Report Says Healthcare Law Could Cause as Many as 20M To Lose Coverage (by Julian Pecquet, The Hill)

Health Care Reform: CBO Releases New Cost Estimates For Obama's Affordable Care Act (Associated Press)

No, the CBO Hasn’t Doubled Its Cost Estimate for Health-Care Reform (by Ezra Klein, Washington Post)

Despite GOP Slam, CBO Confirms Health Care Savings (by Merrill Goozner, The Fiscal Times)

CBO Report Revealed Another Large Deficit

The Congressional Budget Office projected a $1.2 trillion deficit for FY 2012, slightly less than it was in 2011, which had the third-largest shortfall in the past 65 years. It also projected a cumulative deficit of $6.4 trillion for the coming decade, from 2013 to 2023. In 2011 the agency said that “economic recovery is likely to remain sluggish and recent turmoil in financial markets threatens to prolong the slump.”

Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update (CBO)

CBO Releases An Analysis Of The President's 2013 Budget (CBO)

CBO Says True Cost of Wall Street Bailout Unknown

On September 24, 2008, the CBO’s then-Director Peter Orszag told the House Budget Committee that it was “impossible” to estimate the final cost of the Bush administration’s proposed Wall Street bailout. He did say that not acting on some form of bailout would lead to “a financial meltdown…on the order of Great Depression effects.”

Bailout cost unknown—CBO (by Jeanne Sahadi, CNN Money)

The true cost of the bank bailout (video, PBS)

CBO finds 2009 stimulus still benefiting economy (by Erik Wasson, The Hill)

CBO Projected Higher Deficit than Bush Administration Admitted

In 2004, the Congressional Budget Office issued a report projecting a much higher deficit than had been anticipated. The report immediately generated controversy when the ranking Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee accused President George W. Bush of leading the country down a “dangerous path of fiscal irresponsibility.” The deficit at that time was the highest it had ever been in the country’s history—$477 billion. Additional reports wondered what, if any, efforts were being considered to cut the ballooning deficit and put forth a few suggestions.

In the Red (News Hour with Jim Lehrer transcript, between Margaret Warner and Douglas Holtz-Eakin)

Deficit efforts stay modest (by Peronet Despeignes, USA Today)

Air Force Gives $5.7 Billion Gift to Boeing

In September 2003, the Christian Science Monitor reported that the Air Force wanted to replace its aging KC-135 aerial tankers that refuel jets in mid flight. The proposal stirred controversy because the Air Force wanted to lease rather than buy the tankers. While leasing would spend less of the Air Force’s budget, the CBO estimated that if the Air Force were to buy the tankers at the end of the six-year lease, there would be added cost of $5.7 billion. Critics called the Air Force’s plan a giveaway to Boeing, but the Air Force and Boeing disputed the CBO’s findings. Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona) pointed to the large number of emails between Boeing and the Air Force as indicative of an unduly cozy relationship and wondered if it was in the best interests of the country. The controversy did not break down along partisan lines, as many Democrats, whose constituents were hard hit in the economic aftermath of 9/11, supported Boeing’s efforts in the past.

Air Force says deal for in-flight refuelers makes sense. Critics see $5.7 billion giveaway to Boeing (by Brad Knickerbocker, Christian Science Monitor)

Former Directors:

Peter R. Orszag January 18, 2007 - November 25, 2008

Douglas Holtz-Eakin February 5, 2003 - December 29, 2005

Dan L. Crippen February 3, 1999 - January 3, 2003

June E. O'Neill March 1, 1995 - January 29, 1999

Robert D. Reischauer March 6, 1989 - February 28, 1995

Rudolph G. Penner September 1, 1983 - April 28, 1987

Alice M. Rivlin February 24, 1975 - August 31, 1983

Comments

Dian Hardy 6 years ago

I'm a 78 year old woman living in low income senior housing, church sponsored, in Sebastopol, northern California. Earlier today I spoke with my congressional representative who told me the office is awaiting the analysis to be provided by your office. When can we see your response? I also understand that your office is under fire, nonetheless, the fate of most of the country's citizenry is at stake. As a life-long radical, I still find it difficult to believe those most vulnerable would be sacrificed for others far well placed. Thank you for your attention to my question.

Mack Deveraux 8 years ago

Heard on the radio today that the CBO is considering a per mile tax on us. I don't know who gave birth to this hair-brained idea, but there's part of your anatomy that never gets any sunshine where you can put it. We're paying enough damn taxes, that's why Trump is doing so well. You people just never get it.

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Content

Table of Contents
Overview
History
What it Does
Where Does the Money Go
Controversies
Suggested Reforms
Comments
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Founded: 1974

Annual Budget: $44.6 million (FY 2013 Request)

Employees: 236 (FY 2013 Estimate)

Official Website: http://www.cbo.gov

Congressional Budget Office

Hall, Keith

Director

Keith Hall took over as director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which provides estimates for the Congressional budget process, on April 1, 2015. Hall, a former George W. Bush administration official, became the leader of the CBO just as Congressional Republicans wanted the office to change the way it does business.

Hall earned a B.A. in economics and psychology from the University of Virginia and did graduate work in economics at Purdue, earning an M.S. in 1983 and his Ph.D. in 1986. Early in his career he was an assistant professor of economics at the University of Missouri and the University of Arkansas.

In 1991, Hall went to work for the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC), first as a visiting scholar. The ITC investigates the effects of dumped and subsidized imports on domestic industries and adjudicates cases involving imports that infringe intellectual property rights. Beginning in 1993, Hall was chief of ITC’s applied economics division and was named in 2001 as the commission’s senior international economist.

In 2002, Hall was named chief economist at the Department of Commerce and in 2005 he was made chief economist to Bush’s White House Council of Economic Advisors. Hall in January 2008 was made commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Hall left the bureau in January 2012 and became a research fellow at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center, a conservative-leaning economic think tank. He returned to the ITC in 2014 as its chief economist and director of economics.

With Republicans in charge of Congress, Hall was an easy choice for them when Doug Elmendorf’s term expired in 2015. Hall opposes government spending to curb poverty, instead wanting to increase the labor supply. He also is against the Affordable Care Act, saying “it raises the costs of production.” He even opposes Social Security disability benefits saying they’re an incentive for people not to work. SSID benefits top out at $2,663 a month and average $1,165.

One of Hall’s challenges is to accommodate Republicans’ desire to use “dynamic scoring” on their economic proposals. Dynamic scoring is supposed to take into account the effects of a proposal on the economy at large, and GOP legislators believe such analysis can make tax-cut proposals look more attractive.

-Steve Straehley

To Learn More:

Keith Hall Named USITC Chief Economist and Director of Economics (U.S. International Trade Commission)

CBO Pick Keith Hall a George W. Bush Vet, Government Skeptic (by Brian Faler, Politico)

Elmendorf, Douglas

Previous Director

Douglas Elmendorf is arguably the most important nomination that President Barack Obama has no say over. Chosen by the leaders of the House and Senate, the director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) holds considerable sway on Capitol Hill because his analyses are used by lawmakers to help them make up their minds on tough decisions. When it comes to the pricey issue of health care reform, Elmendorf is experienced at issuing deadly assessments of presidential plans, having been a part of the CBO team in the mid-1990s that delivered an injurious blow to President Bill Clinton’s ambitious design for overhauling the American medical system.

A native of Poughkeepsie, NY, Elmendorf received his bachelor’s in economics (summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa) from Princeton University in 1983. He then attended Harvard, where he earned his Master of Arts (1985) and PhD (1989) in economics. While at Harvard he focused on macroeconomics, public economics, and econometrics, and was awarded a National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship. His dissertation committee included professors Martin Feldstein, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Ronald Reagan, and Lawrence Summers, later president of Harvard and current economic adviser to President Obama.

After graduating, Elmendorf stayed at Harvard for five years and worked as an assistant professor of economics under Feldstein.

In 1993, Elmendorf joined the staff of the Congressional Budget Office as an associate analyst. A year later he was promoted to principal analyst, focusing on healthcare issues and the economic effects of budget deficits. It was at this time Elmendorf was part of the CBO team that concluded President Bill Clinton’s health reform plan would cost much more than the White House claimed, which gave fuel to the president’s critics and helped scuttle the proposal.

Elmendorf left CBO in 1995 to join the Federal Reserve Board as an economist, serving under Alan Greenspan.

In 1998, he joined the Clinton White House as a senior economist on the Council of Economic Advisers, which was led by Director Janet Yellen. He focused primarily on Social Security reform, budget policy, and financial-market issues.

Again, he did not stay long, moving on to the Treasury Department in 1999 as deputy assistant secretary for economic policy. By that time his former professor, Summers, was serving as treasury secretary for Clinton.

With the arrival of George W. Bush in the White House in 2001, Elmendorf moved back to the Fed as a senior economist. A year later he was promoted to chief of the macro-economic analysis team, leading a group of 30 economists and researchers as they forecasted inflation rates and labor markets. He stayed at the Fed for one of the longest stints of his career, six years, before the Brookings Institution came calling.

The liberal think tank made Elmendorf a senior fellow, which included co-editing its yearly publication, “Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.” He was also an Edward M. Bernstein Scholar, along with becoming director of the Brookings’ Hamilton Project, a forum for economic policy discussion.

Six months after being nominated to take over CBO, Elmendorf testified before Congress and told lawmakers that the plan to reform health care lacked important fundamental changes that would rein in skyrocketing costs. The warnings of more runaway expenses produced worry among many Democrats, and left the House White scrambling to keep from losing political support for one of Obama’s most critical policy objectives.

Congressional Budget Office Biography

Douglas W. Elmendorf (WhoRunsGov)

Elmendorf Resume (PDF)

Director’s Blog (Congressional Budget Office)

Elmendorf vs. Orszag: A “Teachable moment”…for Geeks and Nerds (by RJ Eskow, Huffington Post)

Health Reform as Proposed is Too Expensive to be Sustained (by Sheila Guilloton, Los Angeles Examiner)

Overview:

History:

What it Does:

The agency also estimates proposals contained in the President’s budget, which enables Congress to compare the administration’s spending and revenue proposals to the CBO’s baseline projections.

The CBO publishes the Budget and Economic Outlook and An Analysis of the President’s Budget to help Congress make budgetary decisions. Additional documents the CBO publishes include:

Analytical studies, such as economic and budgetary issues
Policy briefs
The Monthly Budget Review summarizing the government’s fiscal activity during the previous month. This includes outlays, receipts, and the deficit or surplus throughout the fiscal year
Background papers and related documents that reveal how the CBO came to its conclusions. Related reports, including the Economic Forecasting Record and The Uncertainty of Budget Projections, disclose CBO’s track record.