Is U.S. Economy Headed for Another Fall? Watch Out for “Dollar Carry Trades”
Tuesday, December 15, 2009

The party once again could be over on Wall Street, depending on how the market responds next year to a decline in the “dollar carry trade.” Since the Federal Reserve last year lowered interest rates to near zero, investors have been borrowing the U.S. dollar in heaps and taking the money overseas to invest in other currencies or assets. This strategy has helped fuel recovery elsewhere, while doing little for the American economy, other than liven up the stock market. “The U.S. dollar carry trade is destructive to our currency, and is creating asset bubbles across the world, as leverage is transferred from our markets into others,” writes David Paul, president of the Fiscal Strategies Group.
The booming dollar-carry trade can only last while interest rates are so low. But next year analysts expect the Fed to begin raising rates. When that happens, borrowing against the dollar will dwindle, forcing investors to do something else with their money. If they don’t find alternatives, trading will dip again—how far, no one knows.
-Noel Brinkerhoff
Unwinding of Dollar-Carry Trade a Danger for Stock Market (by Kate Gibson, MarketWatch)
With Wall Street Shorting the Dollar, It is Time for Congress to Pursue Fundamental Change (by David Paul, Huffington Post)
The Fed's Dollar Conundrum (by Colin Barr, CNN Money)
Carry Trade Strategy Example (FX Words)
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