Succeeding where every Democratic president since Franklin Roosevelt had failed, President Barack Obama has managed to achieve a long-term political goal of his party first articulated by FDR 80 years ago: bringing all liberal and progressive voters into the Democratic Party. In FDR’s day, the lingering effects of the Civil War meant that many northern liberals were Republicans, while all white Southerners, who were mainly conservatives, voted solidly Democratic. As a result, the parties were more sectional than ideological, but FDR wanted the Democratic Party to be the party of liberals and the Republican Party that of conservatives, believing that a majority of Americans would vote Democratic.

President Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012 have made Roosevelt’s dream a reality. The much-noticed racial split between the parties—whites voting mostly Republican and non-whites voting overwhelmingly Democratic—has actually masked an ideological re-alignment of the parties. According to roll call voting data, political polarization in Congress is now higher than at any time since Reconstruction, and voting now takes place along the liberal-conservative divide, as the old split in the Democratic Party between North and South has basically disappeared.

Obama’s 2012 win also makes him only the seventh President in modern political history (since 1932) to win two presidential elections. That places him in some elite company, including Franklin Roosevelt, who won in 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944, Dwight Eisenhower (1952 and 1956), Richard Nixon (1968 and 1972), Ronald Reagan (1980 and 1984), Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996) and George W. Bush (2000 and 2004). Of course, Presidents Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson were also great politicians, but each won only a single presidential election after serving out the unfinished term of a deceased predecessor.

In assessing or “ranking” Presidents, an appreciation of success at the purely political aspects of seeking, winning and holding on to the presidency is essential. From this perspective, we ignore policy completely and focus solely on how well presidents engage in electoral politics, a realm in which winning is the sole measure of success, and winning big is the key criteria for greatness.

From this point of view, Obama is already among the top seven modern politician-presidents, but where does he rank within this august company? To answer that and evaluate political success, we use four purely political measurements: average popular vote, average popular vote margin, electoral vote average, and partisan control of Congress. (See the chart below)

By these measures the top and bottom are clear. At the top stands Franklin D. Roosevelt, who won four presidential elections, each time garnering at least 53% of the popular vote and 83% of the electoral vote. In 1936 FDR won the largest electoral vote landslide (523-8) and second largest popular vote share (60.8%, bested only by LBJ’s 61.5% in 1964) in U.S. history. FDR’s coattails—his ability to help fellow Democrats get elected—were also the longest in history, as he led his party to majorities in both the House and Senate in each of the seven national elections during his presidency.

Eisenhower and Reagan occupy a second tier. Reagan, who is first in electoral vote average, won the second largest electoral vote landslide (525-13) and fourth largest popular vote share (58.77%) in 1984. Although he led the Republicans to a six-year majority in the Senate, his coattails did not stretch to the House, where Democrats held a majority for Reagan’s entire presidency. Eisenhower, who ranks second in popular vote average, helped down ballot Republicans very little, and the GOP controlled Congress for only the first two years of Ike’s administration.

At the bottom of the pile are George W. Bush and Richard Nixon. Bush, the only president on the list to lose the popular vote while winning the Electoral College, is also the only one never to break 51% of the popular vote. Nixon, the only president on the list to lose a presidential election (1960), resigned the presidency in 1974 under threat of impeachment and conviction for criminal conduct. As such, even from a purely political point of view, Nixon’s presidency was a failure.

By the numbers, Obama edges Clinton for the number four ranking. By winning the popular vote in 2012 by 51.06% to 47.21%, Obama became only the third modern president to top 51% of the popular vote twice and the first in more than 50 years, joining FDR, who did it four times, and Eisenhower, who did so twice. Obama has also had longer coattails than Clinton, whose party held House or Senate majorities during only 25% of his presidency. In fact, were it not for extensive partisan gerrymandering of Congressional districts, Obama would have led the Democrats to a House majority in November, as 1.3 million more Americans voted for Democratic House candidates than for Republican ones in 2012.

Although the resilience of Obama’s electoral coalition will be tested in 2016 and beyond, underlying demographic factors suggest that it may be quite robust, which would only magnify Obama’s political significance to U.S. political history.

-Matt Bewig

Electoral Performance of Post-1932 Two-Term Presidents

To Learn More:

The Polarization of the Congressional Parties (by Keith Poole, VoteView)

Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections (by Dave Leip)

Obama First President Since Eisenhower to Win 51% of Vote Twice (by David Wallechinsky and Noel Brinkerhoff, AllGov)