Tuesday, July 06, 2010
(map: NOAA)
Scientific modeling by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates oil from the Gulf of Mexico spill is likely to reach Southern Florida, although scientists predict that by that time the petroleum will probably have broken down to scattered tar balls instead of appearing as a surface oil slick.
NOAA experts calculate that most of Florida’s west coast should not be impacted by the Deepwater Horizon accident, while the Florida Keys, Miami and Fort Lauderdale stand a 60%-80% chance of seeing some oil, thanks to ocean circulation patterns.
Federal scientists also estimate that coastlines from the Mississippi River Delta to the Florida panhandle have the “highest probability for impact” (81%-100%). Much of Texas’ coastline should be spared from the spill, as well as most of the Eastern Seaboard. However, on Monday, tar balls from the BP spill showed up in the surf off Galveston, Texas.
-Noel Brinkerhoff
NOAA Models Long-Term Oil Threat to Gulf and East Coast Shoreline (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
What to Expect in South Florida from the Deepwater Horizon/BP Oil Spill (NOAA’s Oil Spill Response) (pdf)
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