No American president wants to bring home troops from war without declaring victory. Given the importance of avoiding any hint of sacrifice-in-vain, President Barack Obama emphasized that his recent decision to withdraw 30,000 soldiers from Afghanistan came after the “tide of war” shifted in favor of the United States and the cause for democracy and peace.

 

But a new report from the United Nations indicates conditions in Afghanistan have actually gotten worse not better. With suicide attacks, assassinations and bombings on the rise, the UN Security Council concluded that violence overall is up 51% compared to this time last year.

 

Also on the rise are civilian casualties, up 20% since the spring of 2010, and the percentage of Afghans forced to move (4%). Although civilian casualties are up, the UN report said, American forces are responsible for a smaller percentage of the deaths. Only 10% of casualties, 292 since March, were the responsibility of U.S. and its allies. Last year, the U.S. was responsible for 16% of 2,777 civilian deaths.

 

The UN report stands in contrast to the messaging from the Obama administration. Lieutenant General John Allen, the incoming war commander, told Congress this week that violence has declined 5% in comparison to last year.

 

But perhaps the most important stat for the White House in recent days came not from the military or the UN. A new Gallup Poll shows that almost three in four Americans (72%) support Obama’s decision to start bringing troops home, while only 23% oppose it.

-Noel Brinkerhoff

 

U.N. Report Shreds Military’s Claim of Afghanistan Progress (by Spencer Ackerman, Wired)

The Situation in Afghanistan and Its Implications for International Peace and Security (Report of the UN Secretary-General) (pdf)

Gallup: 72% of Americans Favor Obama Afghanistan Drawdown Plan (by Laura Rozen, The Envoy)

Afghan Violence, Civilian Deaths Increasing, UN Chief Reports (by Bill Varner, Bloomberg)

President Obama Declines to Define Victory in Afghanistan (by Mary Bruce, ABC News)

Obama Says “Tide of War is Receding”…But Fatalities are on the Rise (by Noel Brinkerhoff, AllGov)