The war in Afghanistan is going well for the West. Or things are steadily deteriorating. It all depends on who’s talking.

 

The U.S.-led coalition produced numbers this week that indicated violence is down in Afghanistan, especially in the southern part of the country where American forces have been concentrated. The number of enemy attacks dropped 17% across the country during the summer months, compared with the same period last year, according to the U.S. and its European allies.

 

The United Nations, however, says violent incidents are going up. A Security Council report shows the average monthly total of “security incidents” (i.e. gun battles, roadside bombings) was 39% higher through August this year compared with the same period in 2010. The UN figures also reported that the number of civilian deaths and injuries was 15% higher in the first half of this year than the same period in 2010.

 

So who’s right?

 

It’s hard to tell, because the two sources take into account different data in reaching their conclusions. For example, the coalition does not count assassinations and weapons seizures as “security incidents,” while the UN does.

-Noel Brinkerhoff

 

Coalition Data Show Drop in Violence in Afghanistan; U.N. Report Says Otherwise (by Joshua Partlow, Washington Post)

The Situation in Afghanistan and Its Implications for International Peace and Security (UN Security Council) (pdf)

UN Report Eviscerates Obama Claim of Receding “Tide of War” in Afghanistan (by Noel Brinkerhoff, AllGov)

Obama Says “Tide of War is Receding”…But Fatalities are on the Rise (by Noel Brinkerhoff, AllGov)